The Kirtland's Warbler Conservation Team held two days of meetings earlier this week to discuss ... well ... Kirtland's Warbler Conservation.
The really good news is that all the agencies see and understand where we stand with the habitat shortfall and are making moves to address the problem.
For the past decade, the Forest Service and the Michigan DNR have missed many of their annual planting targets, which means there is a significant shortfall of habitat available for the KW to nest in. Even though the agencies know they have a problem, the problem is going to get worse before it gets better. Unfortunately, it takes time to free up land by either selling stands of mature timber and replanting them or by essentially grinding up trees between 20 and 30 years old and allowing natural regeneration to take place. Based on projections it would appear that we will continue to lose acreage until 2027, which is when projections say we should bottom out. The chart below shows habitat development since 2006 and future averages the agencies hope to maintain.
The good news is that the State of Michigan will be purchasing a new piece of equipment this fall -- a masticator -- that will help the DNR and Forest Service quickly develop new habitat. The cool thing about the masticator is that certain tracts can be treated in different years, which will end up producing more variation in the age of trees on the landscape and lead to more diversity among the age of the trees.
The best news from our point of view is that the agencies get it. They understand the problem and they understand that if they fail to act decisively, the KW population will fall to the point where the bird would have to be re-listed on the Endangered Species List. That would be a MAJOR blow to their prestige and add fuel to the argument that the Endangered Species Act doesn't work. That view is held only by a few people who, unfortunately, have a platform that allows them to make a whole lot of noise.
This episode has been a major test for the Conservation Team. Would the member agencies respond quickly and with enough urgency to meet the moment? As of right now, it appears the answer is yes. The next step is to ensure that this does not happen again. In the meantime, level your expectations for the numbers coming out of next year's census. The number of singing males in the northern Lower Peninsula is going to be down until we get through this bottleneck.
The Alliance was first to raise this issue and has been forceful in letting the agencies know that they were not meeting their obligations. That is one of the most important parts of our mission. We will continue to do our best to ensure that the future of the rarest songbird is secure.
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